For those of you that use ProphetCharts, you are probably familiar with a particular behavior about drawn objects. That is, to draw something like a trendline or a retracement, you (a) choose the tool; (b) use it; (c) revert back to "pointer" mode so you can zoom in, point, etc.
This was a very deliberate decision when we were figuring out the user interface, but on occasion, some people want to draw several objects at once (like five trendlines), and it's bothersome and annoying to have to keep selecting the same tool repeatedly.
There is an easy way around this, though - - and I get this question a lot, so I know it would help at least a few people to mention it here. To make a tool selection "stick", just do the following:
(1) Go to the Chart Settings menu and choose Preferences
(2) The dialog box below will appear. Turn off the checkbox next to Revert to Pointer after drawing
Voila! From then on, any time you choose a tool, you will stick with that tool until such time as you choose something different (most probably the pointer). I imagine the vast majority of people would want to stick with the default (in which the checkbox is checked), but for you others, there ya go.
This week was pivotal. Although I don't think it's going to be straight down from here, in my opinion, this week's action has brought an end to the bear market rally that spanned from mid-March until mid-May. Our national nightmare is over.
All the indexes got beaten up, but their patterns and projections all vary. Investment banks had a tough week, and this chart of the $XBD suggests the high made on May 2 was simply another "lower high" in a long progression downward.
The NASDAQ bounced off major resistance at about 2,550 and also has cut through its 25% median line. At this point, as I mentioned in my prior post, I closed out my NDX and SPX puts for good profits. I have one index position - on the Russell 2000 - which I entered late today. But everything else is just shorts and equity puts.
This channel indicates the reason I was eager to take profits on the $NDX. Of course, I keep thinking about the MLK 3-day weekend in January and what that was like. (If you don't remember, worldwide markets got creamed and not only did I have no index puts, I had an index call!) In any case, I'm taking a breather on index puts, with the exception of my $RUT position.
I'm still holding on to my $XAU puts, since I think gold has topped out and is heading lower (sort of like oil...........)
The Russell 2000 index did a couple of important "bearish" things this week. First, the breakout from the $730 level has failed, thus negating its bullish important; second, it has dipped below both its major (blue) and minor (green) Fibonacci retracement levels.
And - - I've just got to say it - - 1383 on the S&P is broken! I have been yacking about that level for ages. It finally broke today. More importantly, the close was near the day's lows. We didn't rally. We are plainly below 1383 now.
Just for the hell of it, there are a handful of stocks that I'd be tempted to buy calls on (but I won't). Should we get a bounce on Tuesday, there are some battered issues which looked poised for a small pop. There's Alcoa......
.......Capital One, which is very near its supporting trendline........
.....and Genco, which has retraced back to its neckline.......
As for shorts, here are a few favorites: Autozone still appears to be in the throes of a diamond pattern.
Albermarle is right up against its broken trendline.
Cerner is falling away from its major resistance at $48.75.
Chattem completed a very nice head and shoulders pattern today.
And Schlumberger is also falling away from major resistance.
So - - a great week! And quite a contrast to the last few. To close today, here's an interesting new video from Don Harrold (I own puts on ISRG, so I found this especially intriguing; plus I have this quirky fondness for the truth, so Cramer gets on my nerves too).
I am closing out my wonderful SPX and NDX profits. I'm a big believer in the bear market, but for the immediate moment, I am happy to bag my substantial profits and wait for a better entry point.
All this talk about how gas may cross the $4/gallon mark (and Bush's moronic response a couple of months ago to the reporter who suggested that $4 gas was predicted, which shocked the President) makes me laugh. Ha! Ha! See. I told you so.
We've had $4 gas in these parts for ages. Below is a typical price around here. Not a high price. A typical one. Wimps.
Enough of this fat talk. You've caught me. I'm obese. Morbidly so. All the photographs you've seen recently were heavily Photoshopped. Here's the real Tim at work. May God forgive me for what I am.
I'm also fat with profits. Relatively speaking, at least.
It's interesting how the volume pushed much higher yesterday (during the 200+ point plunge) and shrank tremendously today with the piddling 21 point gain. (I also noticed how Marketwatch heralded this "bounce back", even though it was only 10% of the prior day's loss.)
The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense.
I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.
But I also think the FOREX markets are pointing to a strengthening dollar. That will rough up the oil markets pretty good, should it happen.
My AGU puts are doing OK and I like the prospects of this stock heading down to the low 60s.
Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.
Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points.
I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.
First Solar ("fizzler") has lost 15% of its value since last week. Cracking that ascending trendline at about $250 would mean party time. Gosh, where's Beanie? Oh, I forgot. He's mute when things aren't going his way. Puss.
I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.
Sunpower is another bearish play on solar. This stock is obviously a lot weaker technically than FSLR.
BIDU dropping 20 points - whoo hoo! It's easy to picture another 100 points getting nuked off this baby.
ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!
I've got a variety of real estate shorts, which has my interest after a long hiatus.
And I have trouble believing generic online brokerages are going to thrive once the bear market resumes.
For an energy company, this is a pathetic chart.
SLB is yet another failed bullish breakout (FBB, not to be confused with BFF).
