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10/02/2008

Is This the Big Kahuna?

OK, there is one thing I refuse to do. I absolutely refuse to be long calls when the wipeout comes. No way. No how. I have waited too long for this market and worked too hard to get here.

I have sold my NDX calls for about a $4,000 loss. I have acquired a substantial Russell put position. I am not thrilled with this, because (a) the VIX is ungodly high; (b) we still could be set up for a big bounce; (c) it's impossible to tell what the reaction will be to the House vote, and whether the bill will pass or not.

But I cannot stomach the notion of having my only index position be bullish and seeing the Dow blow up by 2,000 points. That's a nightmare scenario.

Setting aside all this emotional nonsense, I will point out that the Russell ($RUT) has broken a massive, massive neckline. This isn't a perfect H&S pattern, but it's pretty good, and it's gigantic. People, we could be looking at a wipeout on Friday or Monday. I hope I don't keep hoisted up by my keister by chasing a phantom here.

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