« September 2008 | November 2008 »

245 posts from October 2008

10/30/2008

Fast Market

I actually thought it would be weeks or months before (a) any of these longs were ripe for selling; or (b) any short opportunities came up. But if you'll look at my watch lists, you'll see at this point I've once again got a pretty good balance between longs and shorts. It would seem that in any given market, one would be virtually all long or all short, but in this crazy market, I am seeing terrific opportunities in both directions.

More later......

Where the Magic Happens

Some folks have been asking me to show my desk. Here it is. Nothing to write home about.

I would mention also that the dog you see sitting in my chair chewed my RJ-45 cable in half a few minutes after this was taken, thus chopping off my Internet once again and sending me running barefoot to another office to raid it for a replacement cable. Damn dawg.

Money Shot

There are a bevy of opportunities.

That's just one. Many others. Busy!

Short These Dow Components

Chort Chevron

I'm just a fount of ideas today, aren't it?


ETF Puts

Today has been a very good day for buying puts on liquid ETFs. Favorites now include DIA, QQQQ, and IWM.

I have trimmed a few items from my many long positions, but by and large I'm going to let the stop prices do their work.

Two Good Reasons to Short the NQ

  1. It is pushing up against extremely formidable overhead supply (see tinted area)
  2. It has fulfilled its measured target based on the inverted head & shoulders pattern whose neckline I have also provided.
I'd suggest a stop at 1345.75.

An Example Non-Keeper

Some of the longs purchased on Tuesday will be terrific for weeks. Others were good for little more than a 48 hour romp. MTN is a good example. It's up 34% from my purchase price. Terrific! But it's time to say good-bye.

The beauty of these bear markets is that it's five thousand times easier to know when to get out.

Two Timeframes

I am operating in two timeframes now.

One timeframe is bullish, and it's measured in months. I have about a hundred little positions (a little less than $10,000 each) that have pretty liberal stops.

The other timeframe is bearish, and it's measured in minutes and hours. On this front, I've accumulated (40) ES, 5700 SDS, and a bunch of QQQQ puts, DIA puts, and some SDP too.

I'm out of my dollar positions, and I've closed my DBA calls.

Buying Calls on FXP

OK, here's a mind-bender......I am buying a derivative instrument based on an ETF which is double-inverse a foreign-based index. Phew! I'm seeing $CZH approaching a Fib resistance and fan line........

So, although it may have a little more to fall, I'm banking on FXP moving higher.

Before you anal types point out that FXP isn't based on $CZH..........I already know that. But close enough.