« November 2008 | January 2009 »
And so we close this amazing year............
Dow Jones Industrial Average Down 32% S&P 500 Index Down 37% NASDAQ 100 Index Down 40% Abby Joseph Cohen's Credibility Naught. Slope of Hope Permabull!
Be safe, everyone. See you here in 2009.
Although I'd never heard of Roland Burris until his attempted appointment by Gov. Rod Blagojevich yesterday, I've got to say, I'm amazed this guy said yes. What was he thinking?
The phone call must have gone something like this:
Ring! Ring!
Burris: Hello?
Blagojevic: Hey, Roland, it's Rod.
Burris: Mornin', governor.
Blagojevic: Yeah, so, there's this Senate seat that needs filling. I'm the one who gets to decide who gets it. And I'd like it to be you. Interested?
Burris: You had me at "Senate." When's the press conference?
If this Burris fellow had any sense at all, it would have gone more like this:
Ring! Ring!
Burris: Hello?
Blagojevic: Hey, Roland, it's Rod.
*click*
Blagojevic: Hello? {pause} [Expletive deleted]!
Mrs. Blagojevic: (in background) [Expletive deleted]!
Well, we have entered it.....the level of (dramatic pause) peril.
For two months now, every time we enter the low 900s on the S&P, the bulls choke and give it up.
I'm relatively bullishly-positioned right now (long DIG, long ES), even though the quantity of shorts dwarfs the longs. I, for one, would like to see us bust above 920. C'mon, bulls. Can you hack it this time?
When I was growing Prophet as a business, I kept a slip of paper in my drawer than no one else knew about called Prophet Blessings. It was simply a list of lucky breaks and good fortune the business had along the way. Any time I was feeling down, I read the list and recognized how lucky I had been. Compiling the list, it surprised me just how lengthy it was; there must have been about thirty entries on there, and they weren't trivial either.
In my home life, I try to teach gratitude to my kids, even though I'm no shining example of a grateful person. For instance, Mrs. Bear (besides being twice as smart and fifty times better-looking than me) is also a great chef, so after every home-cooked meal, I try to remember to say how lucky we are that mama is such a great cook, and of course they agree; I'd like them to remember such things.
On this last day of the year, I'd like to share some things I'm grateful for about this blog:
This has been a spectacular year for me, and for many others here as well. Let's collectively prove that 2008 wasn't some kind of bearish fluke, and that the kind of analysis and shared vision we have here can put money in our pockets.
I am humbled by your presence here, and I wish all of you a marvelous 2009. This won't be today's last post, but I wanted to be very sure you understood how appreciative I am.
I'm staying with my DIG long until at least 78 on the OIH.
as days such as this give us pause to reflect, drink in the words of poet e.e. cummings as you contemplate the year ahead.
here is little Effie's head whose brains are made of gingerbread when judgment day comes God will find six crumbs stooping by the coffinlid waiting for something to rise as the other somethings did- you imagine his surprise bellowing through the general noise Where is Effie who was dead? -to God in a tiny voice, i am may the first crumb said whereupon its fellow five crumbs chuckled as if they were alive and number two took up the song might i'm called and did no wrong cried the third crumb, i am should and this is my little sister could with our big brother who is would don't punish us for we were good; and the last crumb with some shame whispered unto God, my name is must and with the others i've been Effie who isn't alive just imagine it I say God amid a monstrous din watch your step and follow me stooping by Effie's little, in (want a match or can you see?) which the six subjective crumbs twitch like mutilated thumbs; picture His peering biggest whey coloured face on which a frown puzzles, but I know the way- (nervously Whose eyes approve the blessed while His ears are crammed with the strenuous music of the innumerable capering damned) -staring wildly up and down the here we are now judgment day cross the threshold have no dread lift the sheet back in this way here is little Effie's head whose brains are made of gingerbread
First off, if you didn't see my wrap-up video for 2009, please check out the prior post. This is also on YouTube.
A few days ago I tilted bullish in the energy direction, and so far, those are working out OK. I am very aware that prior bullish setups have withered away, but - - eventually something is going to "take."
As for the S&P.....I am - once again - long the ES. I have been getting smacked badly the past couple of days, losing a couple thousand here, a couple thousand there, and before you know it, about $20k is gone. It has been a beastly thing to trade, and there's no guarantee this time will be any different. My hope, obviously, is that my long-standing assertion that January will bring a rise to the market comes true. This Friday is going to be pretty important, and Monday even moreso. How will 2009 start? That's what we're all dying to know.
I'll say this - - the number 920 is incredibly important. If the S&P pushes above 920, watch out.....things are really going to start pushing higher. Having 36 puts and 72 shorts in just one account alone makes it an awkward prediction, but each of my positions is carefully-chosen. If we start moving higher, I'm moving more and more money into a smaller number of large positions.
My IRA, which has been "all bullish" since the start of December, continues to do well. I imagine it will be spectacular if January zooms higher. We bears really, really need a robust rally. It's going to continue to be an agonizing grind without out.
See ya in the morning.
I imagine the rest of the week is going to be a slog, so bear with me (and the market). Here's one stock for your consideration - symbol DCM, with a stop at 18.25; I like the saucer and the volume.
