Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight

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Adios, Julius

Well, July is over, and I couldn't be more happy to see it end. This month absolutely stunk up the joint. It will be remembered for two things, both of them painful for the bears:

1. The ridiculous head & shoulders tease, which probably convinced 95% of T.A. newcomers that charting simply doesn't work; and
2. The surge across the board to new 2009 highs.

Here are the cold numbers:

• S&P Gain for the month: 7.39%
• S&P Gain for 2009 thus far: 9.29%
• Tim's biggest account for 2009 year to date: 14.2%
• Tim's second-biggest account for 2009 year to date: 40.4%

Regular readers know I have four accounts, but two of them are kind of puny, and I only track and chart the two big boys.

I'm glad I'm still ahead of the market, but I am not pleased with those numbers at all. I lost a lot of ground in July, and for the love of God, I work wayyyyyyyyy too hard at this to be up only 5 points better than the stupid S&P 500 index. I don't mind working hard for triple-digit returns. But this? Kee-rist. Mr. Market, you owe me a ton of money for the rest of 2009 (OK, OK, don't get your pants in a wad, Slopers; I'm just kidding).

I'm not the only one feeling discomfited by July's insanity. My friend and fellow blogger molecool went on a furious bender in Manhattan last night, and a crude snapshot making its rounds on the Internetz is almost certainly him, as he's known to favor white briefs.

But......."we'll get 'em next season", right, folks? I hope "August" lives up to its name. In the meantime, we close the books on 7/09 and move forward, hopefully wiser for the wear.

Couple of Quick ES Trades

I'm ashamed to admit it, but over the past 20 hours I've done a couple of quick seat-of-the-pants /ES long trades, both at a profit. I've highlighted the areas where I was long. It wasn't a lot of money, but it was kind of fun. One has to do something to while away the hours during this idiotic day.

A Couple of Long Buys

Today is so weird. The /ES is completely spasmodic and locked into what seems like a 3 point trading range. Can we just close the market today and re-convene August 3? Anyway, I've bought a couple of stocks whose basing patterns I really like.

I don't know if I'll do another post until the close, because the market is so danged weird and boring.

A Great Way to Fly

Singapore's ETF, EWS, looks like another good short right now. I'm already short EWT, which is a similar pattern.

Phew!

I'm relieved to see that both the President and the Vice President are spending their time having beers with (a) a policeman doing his job and (b) the combative professor whom he arrested. That way, the hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer money being paid to investment bankers will go unnoticed.

ES=EKG

How is anyone supposed to trade against high-speed computers? The market is starting to look like an EKG monitor. Steady trends seem like a distant memory now - - I guess we can count on today being volatile, if nothing else.

Est Non Pro Bono

NEW YORK (AP) -- Citigroup Inc., one of the biggest recipients of government bailout money, gave employees $5.33 billion in bonuses for 2008, New York's attorney general said Thursday in a report detailing the payouts by nine big banks.

The report from Attorney General Andrew Cuomo's office focused on 2008 bonuses paid to the initial nine banks that received loans under the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program last fall. Cuomo has joined other government officials in criticizing the banks for paying out big bonuses while accepting taxpayer money.

Citigroup, which is now one-third owned by the government as a result of the bailout, gave 738 of its employees bonuses of at least $1 million, even after it lost $18.7 billion during the year, Cuomo's office said. The bank's top four recipients received a combined $43.7 million.

Bank of America, which also received $45 billion in TARP money, paid $3.3 billion in bonuses, with 172 employees receiving at least $1 million and the top four recipients receiving a combined $64 million. Merrill Lynch, which Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America acquired during the credit crisis, paid out $3.6 billion, including a combined $121 million to four top employees.

Bank of America earned $2.56 billion in 2008, while Merrill lost $30.48 billion. Cuomo's office said Merrill Lynch doled out 696 bonuses of at least $1 million for 2008.

Goldman gave 953 workers bonuses of at least $1 million, with its four most highly compensated employees receiving a combined total of nearly $46 million. JPMorgan gave 1,626 employees at least $1 million, and its top four recipients received a combined $74.8 million. The two banks each gave more than 200 employees bonuses in excess of $3 million.

It's All Up to the GDP

Today's bar was all about uncertainty. The bulls ran things way higher, but only part of the gain stuck. Tomorrow's GDP (and the close of a very nutty month) will rule the day. I've got nothing more to say until 5:30 tomorrow morning, PST.

Home Sweet Home

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